A dark day in U.S. history offered a test for financial-market participants Sunday night as investors reacted to an apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump.
The event so far wasn’t sparking a flight to typical safe-haven investments such as Treasurys and gold. It could instead see investors focus on perceptions around how the Saturday shooting at a Pennsylvania campaign rally will affect the race between Trump and President Joe Biden. The initial market reaction, however, was subdued, with U.S. stock index futures trading flat to slightly higher Sunday night.
“This is a horrific event. From purely a market perspective, we don’t view this event as having a dramatic near-term impact,” Keith Lerner, co-chief investing officer and chief strategist at Truist, told MarketWatch on Sunday morning.
While betting markets saw increased wagers on a Trump victory, the overall move was in line with what was seen following Biden’s poor debate performance on June 27.
S&P 500 SPX performance since March has correlated positively with prospects for a Trump victory as reflected in both prediction markets and polling, analysts have noted. The relationship appears to be driven more by the desire for a clear outcome than by policy proposals. Indeed, before March, stock-market performance had correlated positively with Biden’s probability of victory.
A pop higher for bitcoin BTCUSD, 4.74%, which trades around the clock seven days a week, was seen by investors as a sign markets are likely to factor in stronger prospects of a Trump victory
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