Copper prices fell on Monday as investors monitor the looming US tariff deadline. With 50% tariffs set to take effect on August 1, the market is bracing for disruptions that could reshape global trade flows for one of the world’s most essential industrial metals.
COMEX copper futures—the most actively traded US contract—dropped nearly 3% to $5.613 per pound, erasing gains made earlier in the session. This marked the commodity’s lowest point in a week, following a surge last week that briefly brought prices near the $6/lb. milestone.
In London, the benchmark three-month copper contract also pulled back, sliding over 1% to $9,769.50 per tonne. That move followed a brief climb to $9,824.50 earlier in the day, underscoring the market’s volatility ahead of Thursday’s deadline.
A Tariff Without Clear Terms
The decline comes as market participants await clarity from Washington on the structure and enforcement of the new tariffs. While the 50% tariff rate is known, key questions remain unanswered, particularly regarding whether all nations will be subject to the full rate, how exceptions might be granted, and whether copper already en route to the US will be grandfathered in.
So far, the administration has not released a full product list or origin-specific breakdown, creating uncertainty that has intensified price swings.
A Surge, Then a Scramble
Earlier this month, traders raced to front-load shipments of copper into the US, triggering a sharp uptick in demand and pushing domestic prices significantly higher than international benchmarks. That surge was driven by fears that post-deadline pricing could rise dramatically.
Despite the recent rally, analysts note that US copper prices still don’t fully reflect a 50% import tariff. The gap has left room for further volatility, especially if key details land just before (or even after) the deadline.
Adding another layer of complexity, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to conclude its policy meeting on Wednesday. While the central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady, markets will be closely parsing its commentary for signals on future rate cuts, which could influence commodity demand and investor sentiment.
Strategic Implications for Copper Markets
The tariff decision comes at a time when global copper supply chains are already under strain. With the energy transition and EV growth placing new demands on the metal, copper is no longer just a cyclical commodity. It’s a geopolitical lever.
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