Uranium prices have surged past $100 per pound for the first time in two years, signaling renewed strength across the nuclear fuel market.
According to Sprott Asset Management, 2026 has begun with significant momentum, and the rally may be supported by stronger structural fundamentals than last year’s volatile run.
Spot uranium prices climbed roughly 25% in January alone, revisiting levels last seen during the 2024 peak. By contrast, 2025 was marked by sharp swings, with prices sliding into the low $60s before rebounding into the high $80s in the second half of the year. This time, however, Sprott believes the backdrop may be more durable.
Investor Focus Shifts Upstream
Jacob White, ETF products director at Sprott, said January’s gains reflect “an important shift in investor attention” from downstream nuclear themes back to the upstream supply chain. The move, he noted, is largely driven by improving policy clarity and strengthening fundamentals.
Sprott itself has been an aggressive participant in the market. The firm added 4 million pounds to its uranium fund this year, bringing total holdings to nearly 79 million pounds – reinforcing its conviction in the sector’s trajectory.
Policy Tailwinds Build
Policy developments in Washington are adding fuel to the narrative. Under the Trump Administration’s Section 232 framework on critical minerals, uranium has been explicitly identified as essential to US energy security and national defense.
Sprott points to the recently announced $2.7 billion funding initiative aimed at strengthening domestic uranium enrichment services over the next decade as a tangible sign of support. Elevated strategic status could open the door to further government intervention and capital flows into the sector.
White emphasized the scale of the ambition in Washington:
“More broadly, these actions sit within a clear ambition to quadruple US nuclear capacity by 2050, including another target to have 10 new large reactors under construction by 2030. If the US were to quadruple nuclear capacity, it would require an extraordinary amount of incremental uranium supply.”
He also floated the possibility of deeper government involvement in the mining space, writing that the US could take equity stakes in uranium producers in exchange for long-term offtake agreements with price floors.
“We are seeing these types of transactions in other critical materials, so why not uranium?”
Supply Tightens at the Source
While policy momentum is building, supply-side constraints may prove even more decisive.
Sprott identifies December 2025 as a defining moment for its bull market thesis, when Kazakhstan (the world’s largest uranium producer) tightened exploration controls. State miner Kazatomprom indicated that prevailing prices do not sufficiently incentivize new production growth.
If prices fail to rise further, future supply could remain constrained. Meanwhile, mine development timelines remain slow, and the global supply base remains concentrated and underinvested.
At the same time, demand is climbing – not only from nuclear power expansion but also from the accelerating buildout of AI data centers, which require steady baseload electricity.
A Contracting Gap Emerges
Beyond spot prices and supply policy, contracting dynamics may represent an underappreciated catalyst.
Utilities typically secure nuclear fuel years in advance. However, uranium contracting has undershot the replacement rate for a 13th consecutive year in 2025. This has pushed uncovered fuel requirements into future periods, effectively creating deferred demand.
According to Sprott, this dynamic builds pressure within the system. As uncovered needs accumulate, utilities may be forced back into the market later with larger volumes to secure, fewer options, and potentially higher prices.
The timing is particularly sensitive in 2026, as procurement decisions now will shape supply availability in the early 2030s. Early signs of catch-up contracting emerged late in 2025 after a subdued first nine months marked by uncertainty.
Taken together, Sprott argues that uranium is entering the year with strengthening fundamentals across policy, supply, and contracting.
As White concluded, “January delivered an early reminder of uranium’s non-linear behavior when fundamentals tighten and sentiment turns.”
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