The global mining and metals landscape is heading into 2026 with cautious optimism, according to a new outlook from BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
While lingering weakness in Mainland China’s property sector continues to cap upside for base metals, tighter supply conditions and sustained demand from decarbonization-linked industries are expected to push most mineral and metal prices modestly higher.
BMI frames the coming year as a balancing act. On one side are easing tariff uncertainties and structural demand tied to energy transition technologies. On the other are macro headwinds from China, where the property downturn remains a drag on bulk and base metal consumption, limiting how far prices can run even as supply constraints persist.
Gold is expected to average higher in 2026 than in 2025, BMI says, supported by lingering geopolitical risk and still-accommodative monetary conditions. However, the firm flags a potential softening later in the year as global easing cycles mature and the U.S. Federal Reserve brings rate cuts to an end.
Industrial Policy Takes Center Stage
According to BMI, industrial policy will remain the primary lever for securing critical minerals in 2026. The U.S. and EU are expected to intensify efforts to expand domestic mining and processing capacity, while simultaneously locking in overseas supply through strategic investments, partnerships, and long-term offtake agreements.
China, meanwhile, is unlikely to relinquish its grip on critical mineral value chains. BMI expects Beijing to accelerate exploration, expand capacity in batteries and rare earths, and push greener manufacturing while deepening ties with resource-rich nations under clearer outbound investment rules. Recent tariffs and rare earth export controls underscore that protectionist tools will remain firmly in play.
M&A Stays Strong
Competition for energy transition materials is set to keep merger and acquisition activity elevated into 2026. BMI notes that miners will continue to prioritize exposure to copper, lithium, and rare earth elements, viewing these assets as strategically indispensable. Large capital projects remain on the table, but the preference is shifting toward phased developments and brownfield expansions as companies navigate cost inflation and policy uncertainty.
BMI also sees sustained investment flowing into frontier markets next year, despite rising concerns around resource nationalism. Governments and local communities—especially across Africa—are increasingly aware of the strategic value of their mineral endowments. As bargaining power shifts, miners will have limited room to push back against evolving fiscal and regulatory frameworks.
A Strategic Year Ahead
Partnerships between mining projects and downstream players in technology, automotive, aerospace, and defence are expected to deepen. BMI highlights that supply bottlenecks now pose real risks to growth in AI, robotics, and defence manufacturing, incentivizing end-users to secure materials directly at the mine level.
Taken together, BMI’s outlook suggests that 2026 will be less about runaway commodity prices and more about positioning. Industrial policy, geopolitical competition for critical minerals, and shifting power dynamics in frontier markets are set to dictate where capital flows next, reshaping the global mining industry in the process.
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